<p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#172639;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#172639;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;70</strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>城房价出炉</strong></span> <span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>二手房降幅明显</strong></span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:justify;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#000000;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;楼市数据，出现转折信号。近日，国家统计局发布70城房价数据。在纳入统计的70个大中城市中，有35个城市二手房环比下跌，占比一半；4个城市价格持平，上涨城市仅为31城。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> &nbsp; </p> <p style="text-align:center;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <img src="https://fapai-public.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/pic/20191118/1574053552162988.png" alt="" /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:center;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;与今年3月相比，下跌城市从10城增加到35城，而上涨城市从57城减少到31城，这背后的市场信号再清晰不过。唯一的悬念是，下一步，楼市向哪走？</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC Semibold&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;哪些城市房价在下跌？</strong></span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <b></b> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;楼市里的统计数据，向来存在争议。众所周知，新房受到网签时间、限价、限制网签以及成交结构的影响，往往存在一定失真。尤其对于一二线城市来说，中心城区基本不再有大规模新增供地，新房集中于边缘郊区，这就导致新房价格存在结构性失真，无法代表整个城市的价格走向。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;相比而言，二手房价格更接近真实市场。不过，官方统计里的二手房数据，也非全面调查数据，而是基于重点调查和典型调查相结合而来，与真实市场同样存在一定背离。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;即便如此，在缺乏权威数据的情况下，二手房仍可作为判断市场走向的依据。从二手房数据来看，10月份，全国共有35城市房价环比下跌。这其中既有一线城市，也有二线省会，更不乏三四线城市。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><br /> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:center;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><img src="https://fapai-public.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/pic/20191118/1574053577162989.png" alt="" /><br /> </span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;一线城市里，北上广全部在列，只有深圳例外。深圳房价10月单月上涨1%，排在各大城市前列。二线城市里，济南、西安单月下跌0.7%，青岛下跌0.6%，天津下跌0.5%，厦门、贵阳下跌0.4%，石家庄、太原、南昌、武汉降幅都是0.3%，郑州、长沙、重庆为0.2%，杭州是0.1%。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">从同比数据（相比去年同期）来看，这13个城市房价回到一年前：</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><br /> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:center;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><img src="https://fapai-public.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/pic/20191118/1574053598162990.png" alt="" /><br /> </span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;青岛（-4%）、安庆（-3%）、郑州（-2.5%）、广州（-2.4%）、宜昌（-2.1%）、湛江（-1.7%）、北京（-1.5%）、岳阳（-1.0%）、海口（-1%）、长沙（-0.7%）、常德（-0.5%）、济南（-0.1%）、遵义（-0.1%）。所以，房价下跌，不再是传说。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC Semibold&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;既然一半城市房价出现下跌，为什么很多人印象里房价还在继续上涨？其一，一些网红城市房价高热不退。今年上半年的苏州，最近一两个月的深圳，以及在多个利好叠加之下的南宁，房价均走出阶段性的独立行情，给人的印象是全国房价仍在上涨。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;这其中，最具代表性的当属深圳。深圳与北上广走出与众不同的独立行情，背后的原因在于一系列利好的叠加。从先行示范区获批到对港澳人士放开限购，再到最近的二手房大范围取消“豪宅税”，每一个政策都成为市场狂欢的催化剂。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><br /> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:center;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><img src="https://fapai-public.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/pic/20191118/1574053615162991.png" alt="" /><br /> </span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:center;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;其二，楼市存在板块轮动效应，上涨时并非同步上行，下跌时也并非同步调整。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;2015年-2016年，一二线城市率先上涨，而当时三四线仍受高库存之累。直到2017年，在棚改货币化和一二线楼市调控持续收紧的双重作用之下，三四线城市房价才重启上涨之路。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;这一轮调整也是如此。2014年最早上涨的厦门，在2018年率先遭遇调整；2015年率先上涨的北京上海，在2018年也横盘了一年之久。三四线同样如此，这是楼市规律所在。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;其三，对于三四线城市来说，棚改退潮的影响将会持续体现。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;三四线这一轮上涨的主要动因在于棚改货币化，这相当于央行定向放水支撑三四线去库存。由于棚改启动与竣工时间存在滞后效应，棚改对三四线楼市的影响同样存在滞后效应。2020年被普遍认为是棚改收官之年。今年的棚改计划量已经从去年的580万套腰斩到285万套，而明年的棚改空间同样所剩无几。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><br /> </span> </p> <p style="text-align:center;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;"><img src="https://fapai-public.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/pic/20191118/1574053635162992.png" alt="" /><br /> </span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:center;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;不久之后，三四线楼市将会失去最大的支撑。未来，会不会大跌？房价松动，是否意味着楼市从此步入下行区间，会不会出现房价大跌？答案很肯定：在一到两年内，不会大跌。</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;熟悉中国楼市调控逻辑的人明白，房地产虽然带来诸多负面效应，但也事关置业拉动经济、土地财政以及居民财富保值增值的基本面。换言之，未来的楼市调控可能不会再“一刀切”，既不会一刀切全部收紧，也不会一刀切大水漫灌式放松，而是将进入“一城一策”的玩法，把握“区间管理”的稳控节奏，让楼市在有限的箱体里进行上下浮动。（来源：国民经略</span><span style="font-size:14px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;">作者：凯风君）</span> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:#34445C;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#34445C;background-color:#FFFFFF;min-height:12px;"> <br /> </p> <p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;font-stretch:normal;font-size:10.5px;line-height:normal;font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;;color:#0000FF;-webkit-text-stroke-width:initial;-webkit-text-stroke-color:#0000FF;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <span style="font-size:14px;color:#000000;">推荐阅读：</span><a href="https://www.fapai.cn/article/1527"><span style="font-size:14px;color:#337FE5;"><u>10月北京成交200宗法拍房</u></span></a> </p> <div> <br /> </div>