3月房贷利率大调整，改变房贷的机会来了
2020-03-02 15:57:49 / 瀚海拍卖
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2020年的经济楼市，注定充满变数。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">近日，对于</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">“3月1日起，存量房贷定价基准转换为贷款市场报价利率（LPR）”是否会继续推进一事，央行有关负责人表示，经认真调研后决定不改变计划，继续推进。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><span style="display:none;"></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">意味着，去年年底确定的</span></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">“房贷换锚”将会如常推进，3月起正式落地，2020年最大的楼市变局终于来了。</span></b><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">那么，房贷利率换锚，究竟意味着什么？将会带来多大影响？</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>01 </strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>房贷换锚，是什么？</strong></span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">房贷换锚，毫无疑问是</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2020年楼市的最大变局之一。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">所谓房贷换锚，指的是将既有房贷全部转换为</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">“LPR模式”。</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">未来所有房贷，都将以</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR利率作为参考基准。房贷是涨是跌、是增是减，都要视LPR利率而定。</span></b>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">解释下，过去我们买房，都是以政策利率作为基准，政策利率由国家确定，一般几年才会调整一次。目前政策贷款基准利率是</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">4.9%，从2015年至今一直没有变化。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">然而，这几年，不仅国内国际经济风云变幻，就连楼市也早已非当初可比，</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">5年不变的政策基准利率，明显不能适应形势发展。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">于是，</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR利率横空出世。</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">这一利率由多家商业银行进行综合报价，代表市场利率，每月</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">20日由央行发布，一直都在变化之中。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;"> </span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR利率分为1年期LPR利率和5年期LPR利率，前者主要针对实体企业而言，后者主要面向房地产。</span></b><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">这样做，不仅让利率更接近真实市场，而且也为实体和楼市定向调控提供可能。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>02 </strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>所有人都必须转换？</strong></span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">是不是所有人都必须进行</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR转换？</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">没错，无论新旧，哪怕是</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">10年前签订的房贷，都要进行LPR转换。</span></b><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">这一政策是强制性的，没有选择空间。唯一的例外是，除非房贷一年内即将到期，换不换已经无所谓。</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">LPR转换，将从3月1日开始，预期8月底完成。届时细则出台之后，将由各大商业银行办理，可通过线下或线上办理。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>03如何转换？</strong></span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">对于新购房者和原来的购房者，</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR模式有什么区别？</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">对于</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2020年3月之后的购房者来说，</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">房贷利率</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">=最新5年期LPR利率+地方加点。</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">这其中，</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">5年期LPR利率由央行每月20日发布，每月调整一次，以最新的为准，而加点基数由地方确定。</span>
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<span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">举例来说，</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2020年2月最新一期5年期LPR利率为4.75%，苏州首套房贷加点123个基点（一个基点等于0.01%），现阶段房贷利率就等于5.98%（4.75%+1.23%）。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">同理，北京首套房贷仅仅加点</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">50个基点，那么北京首套房贷利率就等于5.25%（4.75%+0.5%）。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">对于老购房者，</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2019年之前的存量房贷，从3月开始，都必须转换为LPR模式，同时确定加点基数。加点基数一旦确定，则在整个20年或30年的还款期内保持不变。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>04 </strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>加点，如何确定？</strong></span>
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<span style="text-indent:0pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;">可见，加点是关键中的关键。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">我们已经了解到，对于新购房者，加点由各地确定。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"> </span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">加点类似于过去</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">20%、30%之类的上浮比例。</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">当然，与上浮比例一样，楼市调控阶段不同，城市不同，加点基数截然不同，有城市首套房加点</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">50个基点，有城市加点100个基点。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">对于老购房者，加点基数，则采用</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">“倒推法”确定，加点数值为原合同利率与2019年12月5年期LPR（当月为4.8%）的差值，最短一年一调。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">简单而言，加点</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">=目前实际房贷利率-4.8%。</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">举个简单例子，如果</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2018年合同房贷利率5.39%。换锚之后，加点基数=5.39%-4.8%=59个基点。需要注意的是，加点一旦确定，将会伴随整个还款周期。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>05</strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>房贷折扣，还有吗？</strong></span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><span style="display:none;"></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">折扣依旧存在，因为加点可以为负值。</span></span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">众所周知，在</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2017年之前，尤其在2014年和2015年，很多城市商业贷款利率都是8折起步，当时的房贷利率远远低于4.9%的基准利率。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">同样举个简单例子，如果</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2015年买房获得8.5折的房贷，实际利率是4.165%。那么，房贷利率转换之后，新的房贷到底是怎样的？ 加点=实际房贷（4.165%）-2019年12月5年期LPR利率（4.8%）=-0.635%（-63.5个基点）。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">对，你没看错，房贷换锚之后，新的房贷利率</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">=最新5年期LPR利率-63.5个基点，折扣依旧存在。</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">同理，如果</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2021年5年期LPR利率降到4.7%，那么当年的实际房贷利率可以调整为4.065%（4.7%-63.5个基点），在整个还款周期内都会受益于这一折扣。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>06 </strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>选固定利率，还是一年一变？</strong></span>
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<span style="text-indent:0pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;">这次房贷利率换锚，央行给了所有人一次改变房贷的机会。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">央行提供了两个选择：</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">一是选择固定利率</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">，在整未来</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">20年或30年整个房贷周期，都会保持不变。如果2019年之前实际利率是5.39%，选择固定利率，意味着未来20年都是5.39%。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">二是一年一变的浮动利率。</span></b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">房贷利率每年均可调整一次，如果当年最新</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR利率下降，房贷利率同样随之下降。</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">机会只有一次。那么，该选择固定利率还是一年一变的浮动利率？</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">答案很明显，选择一年一变的浮动利率。</span></b><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">固定利率的好处是，如果未来加息，自己的利率不会跟随上涨。而浮动利率好处是，如果未来降息，那么房贷利率可以一直调整。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">不难看出，问题的关键在于，未来究竟是大加息周期还是大降息周期？</span></b><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;text-indent:0pt;">要知道，利率下降是大势所趋。目前全球经济已经进入大宽松时代，利率走低是大势所趋，很多欧美国家已经进入负利率时代，我国的利率相比于几年前已经大幅下行。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">在中国，</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2010年前后的房贷基准利率一度接近7%，而如今不到5%，利率持续走低可能是未来5到10年的大势所趋。这种背景下，固定利率显然与时代趋势背离。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>07</strong></span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>房贷利率，是升是降？</strong></span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">至少在</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2020年，房贷利率将会保持不变。</span></b>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">也就是说，在</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2019年你的实际房贷利率是多少，换锚之后仍旧保持多少，这正是央行反复强调房贷不会变化的原因所在。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">举例来说，如果</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2019年实际房贷利率是5.39%，那么2020年的实际房贷利率仍旧是5.39%。 区别在于，2019年的5.39%是由政策利率上浮10%所致（4.9%*1.1），如今的5.39%则是由5年期LPR加点所致（4.8%+59个基点）。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2021年，情况又会如何？</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";font-size:14px;">注意，房贷利率一年可以调整一次，具体哪个月份调整，则视合同而定。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">举例而言，</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2021年5月进行调整，那么2021年的房贷利率=2021年4月的最新5年期LPR利率+0.59%。 如果当时5年期LPR利率降低到4.6%，那么2021年的房贷利率将会随之下降到5.29%。 </span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>08 对公积金贷款有何影响？</strong></span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">这次房贷利率换锚，主要是就商业贷款而言，暂时不影响公积金贷款。</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"> 众所周知，公积金贷款属于政策贷款，利率远远低于商业贷款。从2015年开始，商业贷款利率从4.9%攀升到6%左右，而公积金贷款利率一直维持在3.5%。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">所以，正是因为公积金存在政策福利，加上合理避税、影响实际收入等因素，前些天黄奇帆关于</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">“取消住房公积金”的建议，才会一石激起千层浪，引发争议。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>09 </strong></span></b><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";"><strong>房贷换锚，有何威力？</strong></span></b>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">央行为什么要进行</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">LPR模式改革？两个原因：一是进行利率市场化改革，每月更新一次的LPR利率，显然更能适应瞬息万变的市场变化。</span>
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<b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">二是将楼市利率与实体利率分离，为楼市定向调控提供可能。</span></b>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">这一次，央行创设了</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">“1年期LPR利率”和“5年期LPR利率”，前者针对实体经济，后者针对房地产，这两个利率并不会同步变动。要知道，就在最新一期利率中，1年期LPR降低了10个基点，而5年期LPR仅仅降低了5个基点。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">在过去一年，</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">1年期LPR累计调整了4次，累计下调26个基点，而5年期LPR仅调整了2次，累计下调10个基点。</span><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">这就是</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">定向调控和非对称降息</span></b><span style="text-indent:0pt;font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">的威力所在。为应对疫情冲击，实体经济可以大幅降息，而为了防止大水漫灌到楼市，房地产只能小规模降息或不降息。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">未来，很可能出现这样一种场景：实体利率持续下行，而楼市利率非但不跟随下降，反而保持不变，甚至不断上浮。</span><b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">实体定向降息</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">+楼市“定向加息”，并非没有可能</span></b><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">。</span>
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<span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">这就是</span><span style="font-size:14px;font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";">2020年我们必须重新面对的调控格局。未来中国楼市调控的工具只多不少，对楼市的限制只增不降，政策裸奔的时代早已一去不复返了。</span>
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来源:瀚海拍卖